These estimates are highlighted "as agricultural output rebounds after the recent droughts and the nonagricultural sector continues to expand at a robust pace amid strong domestic demand," as noted by Cardarelli in a press release on the IMF website.
In his view, higher growth is expected to increase the current account deficit towards its estimated medium-term norm of around 3%, while inflation is expected to stabilize at around 2%.
The risks to the outlook, he noted, are broadly balanced, with significant uncertainty regarding the economic impact of geopolitical tensions and changing climate conditions.
"With inflation expectations anchored around 2% and little signs of demand pressures, the current broadly neutral monetary policy stance is appropriate," he added. Staff agrees with Morocco's central bank that future changes of policy rates should remain data dependent.
With inflation back to around 2%, Bank Al-Maghrib should continue its preparation to adopt an inflation-targeting framework.
MAP: 10 February 2025
